Tuesday, November 18, 2008

A look at the title pictures in the UFC

On Saturday, The UFC completed it's UFC 91: Couture vs. Lesnar pay-per-view. The main event featured the ever popular Randy "The Natural" Couture losing the UFC heavyweight championship belt to former WWE superstar Brock Lesnar in what the UFC billed as "the biggest fight in UFC history." Lesnar winning the belt could mean a new era is dawning in the Ultimate Fighting Championship.

Naturally, this got me to thinking about what this means to the heavyweight division and, as an extension, the rest of the weight classes. So here's a mix of speculation and what I'd like to see happen in each of the weight classes as far as future championship fights.

Heavyweight
Current champ: Brock Lesnar
Contenders: Couture, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, Frank Mir, Gabriel Gonzaga

Lesnar's victory over Couture was a monumental victory. The fact that Lesnar has only four pro fights, yet is the new champ creates an interesting situation where the top fighter in the heavyweight division is vastly inexperienced. On Dec. 27, the UFC will stage the next part of its heavyweight tournament when Mir fights Nogueira for the right to take on Lesnar in 2009.

I doubt Lesnar will be able to defend his belt considering his submission defense has looked suspect in his young career, and seeing how Mir and Nogueira are world-class grapplers, I would look for Lesnar to get submitted regardless of who he faces. From there, there really aren't any contenders in what is arguably the UFC's weakest division. Couture is 45 and no one knows how many fights he has left. The Nogueira vs. Mir loser will probably have to win a couple of fights before he gets another crack at the belt, and Gonzaga really has padded his 10-3 record against opponents of little consequence. Consider that Gonzaga is 6-2 inside the octagon, yet outside of his upset victory over Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic, he has defeated Carmelo Marrero (1-2 UFC, now fights at light heavyweight), Kevin Jordan (0-2 UFC, 2-3 in his last five fights), Fabiano Scherner (7-7 overall, 0-2 UFC, 2-6 with one No Contest in his last nine fights), Justin McCully (1-1 UFC) and Josh Hendricks (0-1 UFC). Overall, Gonzaga's wins inside the octagon have come against opponents that have a combined record of 73-30-4, but a 3-10 record in the UFC.

The only other option, aside from making a big signing outside the organization, could be either Cain Velasquez or Shane Carwin--two young prospects the UFC has high hopes for. Both are young, but Lesnar won't defend his belt until spring '09 at the very earliest, and it may not be until summer or fall. That would give Carwin and Velasquez some time to get some more fights under their belt. Currently, neither Carwin nor Velasquez are ready to challenge for the belt, but then again, neither was Lesnar.

Next: light heavyweight

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